by Fabio Millevoi, Carla Broccardo, Francesco Mazza*

When we think of the future, most of us think of a “probable future”, what we assume may happen. This usually involves projecting our experience into the future and then considering, on the basis of individual sensitivities, some variations; for example, what if energy costs turned out to be 15% higher or 5% lower? This is a path, which we might define as continuous and which does not challenge assumptions, but simply runs a pattern, and does so several times.

One of the most important tasks of a future exercise, on the other hand, is to identify things that are not yet in the “public domain”: to imagine what kinds of things will be dominant  – say– ten or twenty years from now. And to do so, we must dig, examine grains of information, capture changes in the bud, discover fringe phenomena, detect weak signs of future. An effort that requires creative use of information to produce ideas and viewpoints that challenge the present.

A method that the Laboratory of Imagination of Future Constructions (LICoF) has adopted to highlight the 4 scenarios described in the report presented at Miramare Castle in September 2022. Four stories that may seem unusual, appear exaggerated, or perhaps provocative but will hopefully be able to take the reader in unknown and unfamiliar areas as we need different narratives to tell the story of the ultra-rapid transformations of current times. A complex and multifaceted undertaking.

That is why we invited entrepreneurs, pioneers of digitisation, representatives of culture and academia, and professionals – whom we thank – who contributed their time, expertise and energy to lend value to this Area Science Park and ANCE FVG project, which was carried out as part of the activities of IP4FVG and the Argo project. Participants in the LICoF path shared with us opinions and analyses on the possible trends that could affect the building industry in the coming years, helping to broaden our perspective and consider different paths that can lead to different futures.

We did not create a document containing predictions about the future of the building industry, we imagined rather 4 situations to change the mental map of the supply chain players, a stimulus to think: what if this future were to happen, what would we do about it? What meaningful actions would we take? After all, the purpose of a future exercise is not to stir curiosity but to make it clear that the future must be considered a verb and not a noun. It requires action. It requires deep involvement. It is not something that drops on our heads. It is something we are accountable for. But in a society with a short-term view, dominated by the dictatorship of the present, we end up believing that we have no responsibility whatsoever and forget that we are the weight that tips the scales.

On a final note, we wish you a pleasant reading and encourage you to let us know whether our study has had an impact on you or your business.

Any feedback will be most welcome.

*The authors of the LICoF report

Fabio Millevoi, ANCE FVG Director and futurist
Carla Broccardo, Lawyer and futurist
Francesco Mazza, MOOG Business Development Manager

Download the Report here